主要货币对的分析概要 2025.01.14

The EUR/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.0236
• 前一收盘价: 1.0240
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.04 %

The euro fell to USD 1.020, the lowest level since October 2022, as investors lowered expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). The shift reflects growing concerns about persistent inflation, geopolitical instability, and the global economic outlook, including the impact of US policy under Donald Trump. Investors are currently awaiting the minutes of the December ECB meeting and upcoming Eurozone inflation data to gain insight into the next steps for monetary policy.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.0238, 1.0223
• 阻力价位: 1.0275, 1.0326, 1.0357, 1.0382, 1.0403, 1.0425, 1.0447

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. After testing the liquidity below 1.0275, the price has consolidated above the level. Currently, the captured liquidity should be distributed behind a resistance level commensurate in importance. The nearest such level is 1.0326. Buy trades should be sought on intraday timeframes from 1.0238 or 1.0223. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

选择场景:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0425 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.2204
• 前一收盘价: 1.2200
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.03 %

The British pound extended losses to $1.215, its lowest level since November 2023, after falling 1.7% in the previous week as fiscal concerns and rising gilt yields put pressure on UK assets. Traders are increasingly betting on further declines, with options data showing strong demand for contracts below $1.20 and even below $1.12. Last week’s turmoil in British markets, driven by stagnant inflation, high borrowing, and concerns over Donald Trump’s policies, left sterling vulnerable. Traders cut their estimates for a rate cut to 43 basis points by December 2025, down from 50 basis points expected on Friday.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.2192
• 阻力价位: 1.2322, 1.2371, 1.2455, 1.2507, 1.2540, 1.2568, 1.2614, 1.2667

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Buyers managed to push the price above 1.2192, which, taking into account MACD divergence, increases the probability of corrective movement. Intraday buying from 1.2192 with a target of 1.2322 can be considered. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

选择场景:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2540 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 157.74
• 前一收盘价: 157.47
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.17 %

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen held at 157.6 per dollar after rising for three consecutive sessions following comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino. He said the board is likely to discuss the possibility of a rate hike at next week’s meeting, adding that while price developments and inflation expectations are largely in line with the expected path, domestic and global risk factors remain. The yen received some support amid speculation that BoJ policymakers may raise their inflation projections at the upcoming meeting, possibly setting the stage for further rate hikes.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 157.18, 156.24, 155.94, 154.34
• 阻力价位: 157.98, 158.40, 159.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price reached the demand zone below 157.18, after which it sharply tested the resistance level at 157.98, where sellers re-engaged. This indicates continued sellers’ pressure intraday. The downward movement is likely to continue. However, it is better to sell after the price consolidates below 157.18. A move above 157.98 will cancel the selling scenario.

选择场景:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the 156.24 support, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 2690
• 前一收盘价: 2662
• 过去一天的变化%: -1.05 %

Gold is trading around $2,670 per ounce on Tuesday. With the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, fears are growing that his proposed tariffs and trade policies could spur inflation and trigger trade wars, further increasing gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation. The broader outlook for the precious metal also remains positive, helped by geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing Central Bank purchases.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 2679, 2663, 2645, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• 阻力价位: 2672, 2692

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish, but it is close to change. The price is now forming a broadly volatile flat, but the intraday bias remains with sellers. With these market conditions, one can look for selling on intraday time frames to renew Monday’s low. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

选择场景:

if the price breaks above the 2692 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.