主要货币对的分析概要 2025.01.08

The EUR/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.0382
• 前一收盘价: 1.0340
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.40 %

The euro gave up overnight gains and declined as the dollar strengthened on Tuesday amid better-than-expected economic news from the US. Growth in the US services sector strengthened in December, with an increase in business activity pushing prices to their highest levels since early 2023. The Eurozone Consumer Price Index for December rose to 2.4% y/y, up from 2.2% y/y in November, and in line with expectations. Core CPI for December came in at 2.7% y/y, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the next meeting on January 30 at 98%.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.0328
• 阻力价位: 1.0382, 1.0403, 1.0425, 1.0447, 1.0493, 1.0513

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the European currency declined sharply from the level of priority change. Sellers managed to protect their positions. Currently, the price is trading around the moving averages and is likely to reach the support level of 1.0328, where we can look for buy trades, provided the buyers react. Sell deals can be considered from the intermediate resistance level of 1.0382, but also with confirmation.

选择场景:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0425 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.2516
• 前一收盘价: 1.2477
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.31 %

The UK Construction PMI from S&P Global fell from 55.2 in November to 53.3 in December 2024, the lowest reading in six months. While still above the 50.0 mark indicating expansion, the slowdown reflects weakening demand, higher borrowing costs, and low consumer confidence.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.2454, 1.2371, 1.2299
• 阻力价位: 1.2507, 1.2540, 1.2568, 1.2614, 1.2667

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Yesterday, the price of the British pound tried to close above the priority change level, but sellers were able to reject the price. Note that unlike the euro, the pound was able to update the extremum. This is called SMT divergence between instruments, which is a reversal signal. Price is now looking to test liquidity below the support level of 1.2454, where we can consider buy deals if there is a buying reaction. For selling, watch the price reaction at the intermediate resistance level of 1.2508.

选择场景:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2540 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 157.54
• 前一收盘价: 158.03
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.30 %

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen declined to 158.2 per dollar, remaining at its lowest level in five months and approaching the 160 per dollar mark that triggered the intervention six months ago. Earlier this week, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated his warning against speculative, one-way moves in the currency market, signaling the government’s readiness to intervene if excessive volatility persists. The yen came under pressure amid growing uncertainty over the timing of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 157.95, 157.18, 156.44, 155.94, 154.34
• 阻力价位: 158.07, 159.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen is testing again the liquidity above 158.07. There is a huge pool of liquidity behind this resistance level, and if sellers react and consolidate below the intermediate 157.95, the price may develop a sharp downward impulse. However, if buyers can push the price higher now, the road to 159.47 will open up.

选择场景:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the 155.94 support, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 2635
• 前一收盘价: 2650
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.57 %

On Tuesday, gold prices rose to 2660 dollars per ounce. Support came from data from China’s Central Bank, which increased its gold reserves for the second straight month in December. Traders are now awaiting key US employment data and FOMC meeting minutes to assess the Fed’s next steps this year. Comments from Fed spokeswoman Lisa Cook on Monday reiterated the Central Bank’s cautious approach to cutting rates, citing a resilient labor market and stable inflation. This could have a negative impact on bullion, as rising rates dull the appeal of holding a non-yielding asset.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 2645, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• 阻力价位: 2665, 2672, 2692

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. However, the buyers have intercepted the intraday bias. Price yesterday distributed previously captured liquidity to the nearest resistance levels. Currently, a narrow accumulation is forming. Support levels 2645 and 2636 can be considered for buying, but with confirmation. For selling, there are no optimal entry points now.

选择场景:

if the price breaks above the 2664 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.