The main event this week is Trump’s ushering into the White House. Although it is not an economic event, it could strongly impact financial markets. In the run-up to the inauguration, yields on US long-dated bonds rose amid expectations that Trump’s proposed tariffs could rebound inflation. In addition to Trump’s inauguration, traders should pay attention to the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision this week. The week will also include several inflation data releases in Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan. Also, this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. A WEF survey released before last week’s meeting showed that armed conflict is the most serious risk to the global economy in 2025.
دوشنبه, January 20
On Monday, investors are watching closely as Trump prepares to begin his second term after the incoming president said he plans to sign a flurry of executive orders on his first day. US markets will be closed on Monday due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day celebrations, so any market implications may not fully play out until Tuesday. Also, traders should pay attention to Monday’s Chinese central bank’s decision on interest rates. It is expected to be unchanged, but there may be hints of further stimulation of economic activity.
رویدادهای اصلی روز:
- China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2);
- Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2);
- World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Day 1);
- Trump inauguration.
سه شنبه, January 21
Tuesday will be full of economic events. Firstly, traders should pay attention to the labor market data in the United Kingdom. This indicator is considered by the Bank of England (BoE) to regulate monetary policy. Weak data could accelerate rate cuts by the BoE, which is negative for the Pound. There will also be inflation updates in New Zealand and Canada. New Zealand’s CPI is not expected to move strongly from current levels, while Canada is expected to see a slight decline in inflation. Any deviations from the predicted values will cause additional volatility. For example, if Canadian inflation data unexpectedly rises, the Canadian dollar may regain some of its lost ground against the US dollar.
رویدادهای اصلی روز:
- UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- New Zealand Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 23:45 (GMT+2);
- World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Day 2).
چهارشنبه, January 22
Wednesday will be relatively quiet as there will be no major economic events. However, ECB head Christine Lagarde’s speech may affect currency pairs with the euro, so traders should carefully evaluate this event.
رویدادهای اصلی روز:
- Canada Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 17:15 (GMT+2);
- World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Day 3).
پنج شنبه, January 23
On Thursday, Norway’s central bank will announce its decision on interest rates. It is expected to be unchanged. Policymakers have kept the interest rate at a sixteen-year high of 4.5% since December 2023, helping to cool the Norwegian economy and lower inflation. Inflation data will be released in Singapore, where a small gain in consumer prices is expected, which could strengthen the Singapore dollar.
رویدادهای اصلی روز:
- Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- Singapore Inflation Rate at 07:00 (GMT+2);
- Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2);
- World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Day 4).
جمعه, January 24
A lot of economic events from Japan are expected on Friday. At the beginning of the Asian session, the latest national inflation data will be released, expected to rise from 2.7% to 3.0% annually. Just a couple of hours after the report, the Bank of Japan will convene for its next meeting, which is expected to raise the rate by 0.25%. A rate hike would narrow the gap between US and Japanese rates, strengthening the yen. Also, on Friday, traders will focus on the data on business activity in key economies’ manufacturing and service sectors. These indicators demonstrate the health of the economy. Therefore, the growth of indicators is often accompanied by the strengthening of the national currency and vice versa.
رویدادهای اصلی روز:
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan BOJ Policy Rate at 05:00 (GMT+2);
- Japan Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2);
- Japan BOJ Outlook Report at 05:00 (GMT+2);
- German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Day 5).
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