بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.01.20

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.0299
• قبلی بستن: 1.0269
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.29 %

The dollar weakened against major currencies on Monday as traders prepared for a series of policy announcements following Donald Trump’s inauguration. Markets are focused on his plans to raise tariffs, tighten immigration, cut taxes and increase deregulation, which are expected to have an inflationary impact. However, trading volumes are expected to remain low throughout the session as US markets are closed due to the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.0265, 1.0238, 1.0223
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.0326, 1.0360, 1.0382, 1.0403, 1.0425, 1.0447

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish, but close to change. Since Thursday of last week, the price has been forming a flat accumulation with the boundaries of 1.0265–1.0326. Liquidity is accumulating both inside the range and outside the range boundaries. All this may lead to a sharp impulsive move. On Friday, the price tested liquidity above the accumulation, which increases the probability of price decline in order to distribute new liquidity. Intraday, it is better to focus on selling from the upper boundary of the range. Buying should be considered only after a test of 1.0265 or after a breakout of 1.0326.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0360 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.2236
• قبلی بستن: 1.2167
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.57 %

Concerns about the state of the UK economy reinforce skepticism about the government’s fiscal credibility, which has persisted since the fall budget. The sharp rise in UK 10-year bond yields since late November (~60bps) has coincided with a more than five-cent fall in sterling against the dollar. In the swap market, the probability of a rate cut at the Bank of England meeting on February 6 is just over 90%, and the probability of a rate cut this year is almost 65bps. Such a sharp rate cut will put pressure on the pound against those currencies where the rate cut will take place at a slower pace.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.2160, 1.2141
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.2262, 1.2322, 1.2371, 1.2455, 1.2507, 1.2540, 1.2568

Technically, the British pound looks weaker than the euro. The price is also forming a flat accumulation and is in the center of this corridor, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. For buying, it is recommended to wait for a liquidity test below 1.2160 or 1.2141. For selling, it is best to wait for a resistance level at 1.2262, but with confirmation.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2376 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 155.13
• قبلی بستن: 156.30
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.76 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 156 per dollar on Monday, extending last week’s gains, as investors prepared for the upcoming policy decision of the Bank of Japan. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino suggested the possibility of a rate hike at this week’s meeting, supported by strong inflation and wage data. In addition, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated the government’s willingness to take “appropriate measures” to support the yen, which further strengthened the currency. 

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 154.93, 154.34
• سطوح مقاومت: 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Currently, the price is trying to test the liquidity above 156.74 to continue the downward movement. This resistance level can be used for selling, but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative. However, the price may start falling from the current levels as well. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 158.19, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2715
• قبلی بستن: 2701
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.52 %

Gold traded above the $2,700 per ounce mark on Monday, reversing losses in early trading as investors prepared for President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration later today. His proposed trade tariffs are expected to spur inflation and could spark trade wars, which could boost gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation. Last week’s favorable US core inflation data, as well as softer-than-expected producer price inflation and retail sales data, revived expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of owning non-interest-bearing gold, making it more attractive.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2697, 2676, 2666, 2655, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• سطوح مقاومت: 2717, 2726

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to an uptrend. Today, in the Asian session, the price declined and tested liquidity below 2690, after which buyers stepped in. Captured liquidity is now trying to distribute above 2717. The MACD indicates intraday buying pressure up to this level. However, there is little upside potential left, so it is better to assess the price reaction at 2717 and in case of sellers’ initiative, look for sell trades.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2656, the downtrend will likely resume.