بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.01.16

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.0306
• قبلی بستن: 1.0288
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.17 %

The euro rose moderately on Wednesday after the dollar fell on the back of a weaker-than-expected US CPI report for December. The US Consumer Price Index for December rose to 2.9% y/y from 2.7% y/y in November, which was in line with expectations. The Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy unexpectedly declined to 3.2% y/y 3.3% y/y in November, better than expectations of no change at 3.3% y/y. The euro also found support in Wednesday’s news, which showed that Eurozone industrial production rose as expected in November.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.0275, 1.0238, 1.0223
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.0360, 1.0382, 1.0403, 1.0425, 1.0447

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish, but close to change. Captured liquidity below 1.0223 was distributed above 1.0326, and at the same time, grabbed new liquidity. However, it is not enough to resume the bearish trend. Under such market conditions, it is worth looking for buy trades from 1.0275 or 1.0238. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0360 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.2210
• قبلی بستن: 1.2238
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.23 %

The annual inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 2.5% in December, which is in line with the Bank of England’s projection but below market expectations of 2.6%. In addition, services inflation slowed sharply to a 2022 low of 4.4%, while the core rate also fell to 3.2%. This data brought some relief to investors, signaling that underlying inflationary pressures are easing for now. However, traders have only factored in one quarter-point interest rate cut by the Bank of England so far this year. 

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.2192, 1.2141
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.2262, 1.2322, 1.2371, 1.2455, 1.2507, 1.2540, 1.2568.

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. However, the buyers took the initiative inside the day. The price grew impulsively on yesterday’s news. It is now important for the buyers not to let the price fall below 1.2192. If they succeed, we can expect a move up to 1.2322. Although, if the price consolidates below 1.2192, the buying scenario is canceled. In this case, we should expect the continuation of the downward medium-term trend.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2376 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 157.93
• قبلی بستن: 156.47
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.93 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 155.5 per dollar on Thursday, reaching its highest level in four weeks, after hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Ueda said Wednesday that the BOJ will discuss the possibility of raising interest rates at its upcoming meeting, signaling the Central Bank’s willingness to tighten borrowing costs if the economy performs as expected. He also expressed growing confidence in wage gains, citing positive feedback from various industries. The yen also benefited from a decline in the US dollar caused by an unexpected drop in US core inflation, which fueled expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 154.93, 154.34
• سطوح مقاومت: 155.95, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price has consolidated below the priority change level at the second attempt, and the captured liquidity is not enough to continue the uptrend. Under such market conditions, we should look for selling from 155.95 or from 156.74 with the first target at 154.93. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 158.19, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2676
• قبلی بستن: 2696
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.75 %

Gold prices rose above $2,690 per ounce on Thursday, the highest in more than a month, as weakening US core inflation renewed hopes for a less tight Fed policy this year. Core inflation unexpectedly slowed while core consumer prices offered no significant surprises. This has boosted demand for bullion, as progress in disinflation may prompt the FOMC to ease monetary policy by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-income producing assets. Markets now expect the Fed to cut rates by 40 bps by year-end, down from the 31 bps expected before the data was released.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2676, 2666, 2655, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• سطوح مقاومت: 2700, 2722

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to an uptrend. The price reached the level of priority change and consolidated above. Currently, for the price to open the way up to 2722. Intraday, you can look for buying from the moving averages. Another corrective wave to 2676 or 2666 is not excluded. However, in the medium term, there are no signals for selling now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2656, the downtrend will likely resume.