بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.01.10

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.0316
• قبلی بستن: 1.0299
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.16 %

Eurozone retail sales in November 2024 rose by 0.1% month-on-month, which was below market expectations of 0.4% growth and after falling by 0.3% in October. On a year-over-year basis, Eurozone retail sales rose by 1.2% after rising 2.1% in October. Among the largest economies, retail sales rose 0.3% in France, but fell in Germany (-0.6%) and Spain (-0.6%). Overall, the data is negative for the euro.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.0272, 1,0223
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.0326, 1.0357, 1.0382, 1.0403, 1.0425, 1.0447, 1.0493

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The situation has not changed much. The intraday bias remains behind the sellers. The support level of 1.0272 slowed down a bit, after which the price flattened. However, since the nearest liquidity level is below 1.0223, the price will seek to test it. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for sell trades from 1.0326 or 1.0357, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0425 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.2358
• قبلی بستن: 1.2307
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.41 %

The British pound fell to its lowest level since November 2023 as concerns over the UK’s fiscal and inflationary outlook put pressure on investor sentiment. This fall came despite a sharp rise in UK bond yields, with 30-year bond yields hitting their highest since 1998 and 10-year bond yields reaching levels not seen since 2008. Normally, rising yields are supportive of a stronger currency, but this drop indicates capital outflows driven by concerns about persistent inflation and fiscal instability. Traders now expect only two Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts this year, while a month ago more than three were predicted.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.2299, 1.2187
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.2371, 1.2455, 1.2507, 1.2540, 1.2568, 1.2614, 1.2667

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Sellers have reached a large pool of liquidity below 1.2299, but there is no reaction from buyers. This increases the probability of a further decline, all the way down to 1.2187. Sell trades can be considered from 1.2371 but with confirmation. The buying scenario can materialize if the price strengthens sharply and consolidates above 1.2299.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2540 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 158.32
• قبلی بستن: 158.12
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.13 %

Japan’s Index of leading economic indicators, which gauges the economic outlook for the coming months based on data such as job offers and consumer sentiment, fell to 107.0 in November 2024 from October’s high of 109.1. This is the lowest since August as the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.5% in November after hitting an eight-month low in September, even though there was a moderate upward trend in employment during the month.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 157.92, 157.18, 156.44, 155.94, 154.34
• سطوح مقاومت: 158.40, 159.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen continues to trade in the supply area without a significant reaction from sellers after the liquidity tests above. This suggests that sellers lack the potential to reverse the move. In this scenario, the probability of further price rally is increasing. Buying can be sought from the support level of 157.92 but with a short stop loss. A price fixation below this level may cause a sharp sell-off.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the 155.94 support, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2663
• قبلی بستن: 2670
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.26 %

According to the World Gold Council, physical asset-backed ETFs saw inflows for the first time in four years, mostly from Asia, while North American funds recorded positive annualized inflows for the first time since 2020 and outflows from Europe declined from 2023. Traders await the release of Non-Farm payrolls data, which is expected to determine the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook for this year. December’s payroll data is estimated to show moderate but solid job growth. A strong jobs report will bolster the case for fewer Fed rate cuts this year, which could put pressure on gold and silver.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2645, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• سطوح مقاومت: 2672, 2692

 

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. The moving average lines are dynamic support levels and support the upside. But the price is in the global supply zone, and given the MACD divergence, there is a high probability of a sharp decline on the publication of Non-Farm Payrolls news. In such a scenario, intraday sell trades can be sought with a target of 2645. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks above the 2664 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.