بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2024.12.30

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.0419
• قبلی بستن: 1.0425
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.06 %

According to Robert Holzmann of the Governing Council, the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider waiting longer before the next rate cut if inflation risks related to energy prices or a strong euro depreciation materialize. Holtzmann is considered one of the most hawkish representatives of the ECB’s board of directors. Economists are analyzing the impact of a more active US trade policy after Donald Trump’s inauguration as president in January. One likely scenario is that Trump’s tariffs will slow growth and create inflationary pressures. The strength of the effect depends on whether the dollar strengthens and how much the euro weakens.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.0372, 1.0334
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.0447, 1.0493, 1.0513

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The situation has not changed much. The euro flattened between 1.0384 and 1.0447. However, the bias remains for the bears, so intraday, we should focus on selling from the level of 1.0447, but with confirmation. For buying, we can consider 1.0384, but also with confirmation, as there is still a high probability of an update of last week’s low.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0513 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will be resumed with a high probability.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.2522
• قبلی بستن: 1.2575
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.42 %

Scotiabank expects the strong US economy and high yields to push the dollar to new two-year highs. The investment bank also expects the Trump administration to enact tax cuts and deregulation measures to support the US economy. As a result, the strengthening of US equities could positively impact household wealth, which will also boost consumer spending and investment. Under these circumstances, the bank expects the GBP/USD pair to retreat to 1.22 in 2025. 

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.2487, 1.2475, 1.2446
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.2588, 1.2614, 1.2667

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The buyers have intercepted the intraday bias, and the price is now aiming for a liquidity test above last week’s high. There is almost no space left for buying, so it is better to expect a reaction from the selling side. Sell trades can be considered from 1.2588 or 1.2614, but with confirmation.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2667 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 157.92
• قبلی بستن: 157.89
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.02 %

The yen strengthened slightly on Friday, bouncing off the 5-month low. Short covering appeared in the yen on Friday amid better-than-expected economic news from Japan on industrial production and retail sales for November. The yen also added to Friday’s gains after Japan’s Finance Minister Kato said the government would take all necessary steps against excessive movements in the currency market, adding to speculation that the Bank of Japan may be close to intervening to support the yen.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 156.88, 155.97, 154.34
• سطوح مقاومت: 157.89, 159.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price has reached the liquidity zone above 158 and can’t consolidate above it yet. At the same time, the price is forming a flat accumulation in front of the level. The MACD divergence hints at an impending correction. Under such market conditions, sell trades can be considered from 157.89 with a target of 156.90. However, the price may require more tests of the liquidity zone above 158, so new false breakouts are not excluded. In such a case, additional confirmations should be used to enter selling. If the price impulsively breaks 157.89 and consolidates above, the road to 159.47 will open.

سناریوی جایگزین:

If the price breaks and consolidates below the 155.97 support, the downtrend is likely to resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2634
• قبلی بستن: 2615
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.72 %

Gold traded above $2,620 per ounce on Monday amid weak holiday trading. Investors remain focused on the US Federal Reserve monetary policy outlook and expected tariff policy under the incoming Trump administration, which could influence gold’s direction next year. Meanwhile, gold’s appeal as a “safe-haven currency” continues to be supported by geopolitical risks. The precious metal is up more than 27% this year, its best performance since 2010, helped by softening US policy, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and continued buying by global central banks.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2608, 2570
• سطوح مقاومت: 2640, 2664, 2672, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. The price is forming a flat accumulation in the range of 2608-2640 and is likely to stay here until the end of the year. There is a slight selling pressure in the intraday timeframes, and the price is approaching the support zone below 2608. This level can be considered for buying, but we need to see buyers’ reaction to the level. Selling can be considered intraday to this level but also with confirmation.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks above the 2664 resistance level, the uptrend is likely to resume.