بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2024.10.24

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.0798
• قبلی بستن: 1.0781
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.16 %

On Wednesday, the euro slipped below $1.077 — its lowest level since early July, amid growing expectations of more rate cuts by the European Central Bank compared to the US Federal Reserve. Moreover, some ECB officials are beginning to debate whether interest rates should be lowered below neutral to stimulate economic activity.  Swaps put the probability of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting at 100%, while the probability of a 50 bps rate cut at the same meeting is 43%.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.0780
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.0836, 1.0868, 1.0894, 1.0951, 1.0979, 1.1013

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The price decreased to the 1.7080 daily level, where buyers showed a moderate reaction. Here, you can look for buying with a short-stop loss, as it will be a position against the trend. The profit target is 1.0836. If the price goes below 1.0765, this scenario will be canceled.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.0871 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.2971
• قبلی بستن: 1.2918
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.41 %

The British pound fell sharply to below $1.3. A stronger dollar influenced the pound’s decline as the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut lending rates more slowly than expected. The Bank of England is expected to cut borrowing costs by 25 bps next month. In addition, attention will turn to the 2025 budget announcement for government policy and taxes information.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.2907
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.2958, 1.2985, 1.3011, 1.3032, 1.3071, 1.3103, 1.3171, 1.3290

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Yesterday, by the end of the trading session, the price had fallen to the support level of 1.2907, and buyers showed a reaction. Considering the MACD divergence, we can look for buying here, but with a short stop-loss, as it will be a buy against the trend. The profit target is 1.2958. Going below 1.2900 is highly undesirable for buyers.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3032 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 151.00
• قبلی بستن: 152.75
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +1.15 %

The yen fell to a new 2-month low against the dollar. Pressure on the yen is exerted by the recent comments of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) representatives, who say that the Bank’s officials do not see the need to rush to raise interest rates. In addition, political uncertainty in Japan is weighing down the yen as polls suggest that Prime Minister Ishiba’s ruling coalition could lose its majority in this weekend’s parliamentary elections, leading to an unstable administration.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 152.00, 150.50, 149.63, 148.90, 148.12
• سطوح مقاومت: 153.42

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price seeks to test liquidity above 153.42. Intraday, any pullback to the moving lines can be used to buy. Also, 152.00 is worth considering for buying, provided there should be a reaction. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breakdown the support level of 148.15, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2748
• قبلی بستن: 2716
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -1.17 %

Gold fell more than 1% to below $2715 per ounce on Wednesday after hitting a record high of $2750 earlier in the session. A strengthening US dollar and rising Treasury bond yields outweighed safe-haven gold demand driven by the upcoming US election and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Despite this pullback, gold is still up more than 31% this year thanks to the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut last month and sustained demand for the safe-haven currency.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2708, 2704, 2714, 2704, 2667, 2661, 2640, 2605, 2584, 2574, 2561
• سطوح مقاومت: 2738, 2752

From the technical analysis point of view, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, the price corrected sharply to the support level of 2707, where buyers are trying to buy the price back again. But intraday sellers have retaken the initiative. We can consider the resistance level of 2738 or 2752 for sell deals if sellers react. Buying should be very careful now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breakdown the support level of 2640, the downtrend will likely resume.