بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2024.10.16

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.0904
• قبلی بستن: 1.0888
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.15 %

Stronger than expected US employment and inflation data reduced the probability of further significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which keeps the euro under pressure. The euro is also pressured by expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates by 25 bps at this Thursday’s meeting. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the October 17 meeting by 97% and a 25bp rate cut at the December 12 meeting by 100%.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.0884
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.0952, 1.0979, 1.1013, 1.1036, 1.1079, 1.1136, 1.1163

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The sellers managed to sell the support level at 1.0908, and now the price is trying to test the liquidity zone below 1.0884. Given the strong MACD divergence, we can look for intraday confirmation buys here. For buying, 1.0884 is still worthwhile but subject to the buyers’ reaction. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.0997 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3048
• قبلی بستن: 1.3073
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.19 %

The UK inflation report will be released today. Economists expect the overall inflation rate to fall from 2.2% to 1.9% y/y and core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) to fall from 3.6% to 3.4% y/y. A further decline in inflation may encourage traders to increase the probability of a rate cut by the Bank of England and thus push the pound down. However, if inflation proves to be stable, it will sharply reduce the probability of a rate cut next month, which will give the pound an opportunity for growth.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.2977, 1.2932
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3015, 1.3101, 1.3171, 1.3290, 1.3327, 1.3377, 1.3389

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Buyers failed to react to the support level of 1.3015, and now the price is trying to test 1.2977. But buying from this level on a strong falling impulse is not recommended. As a rule, the price rarely makes a V-shaped reversal on currencies, so we should expect at least a stop of the movement in the form of a flat. There are also no optimal entry points for selling now, as the price has deviated strongly from the moving averages.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3101 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 149.77
• قبلی بستن: 149.19
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.39 %

The Japanese yen fell to 149 per dollar in Tuesday’s Asian session, hitting its lowest level since early August, as the dollar strengthened on strong expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates further at its remaining meetings this year. This week, traders await Japanese inflation data, which is due out on Friday. A decline in consumer prices could distance the Bank of Japan from further rate hikes.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 148.91, 148.32, 148.12, 147.50, 146.90, 146.02, 144.20, 143.53
• سطوح مقاومت: 149.37, 151.03

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price failed to consolidate above 149.37 yesterday, which is more bearish. Inside the day, we can look for selling from this level. The first profit target is 148.91. A move below this level will open the way to the level of priority change — 148.32. A move above 149.95 will open the way to 151.03, so in this scenario, you can look for intraday buy trades.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks down the support level of 148.32, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2648
• قبلی بستن: 2663
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.57 %

The drop in 10-year Treasury yields following the weak industrial production data from New York increased the attractiveness of non-income producing assets such as gold. The yellow metal remains a safe haven amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty, although easing tensions in the Middle East may limit its upward momentum.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2669, 2661, 2640, 2605, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
• سطوح مقاومت: 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is still bullish. Yesterday, buyers took the initiative from the 2640 level, with sellers failing to stop this upward momentum with a 2669 resistance level. This is a strong bullish factor, so in the coming days, we should expect the price to rise to 2700, with pullbacks. Buying can be considered from 2669 and 2661 levels. Going below 2661 will cancel the growth scenario.

سناریوی جایگزین:

 if the price breaks down the support level of 2569, the downtrend will likely resume.