The EUR/USD currency pair
شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:
- قبلی باز کن: 1.1162
- قبلی بستن: 1.1162
- % chg. در طول روز گذشته: 0.0 %
The euro recovered from early losses on Friday on the back of stronger-than-expected Eurozone Consumer Confidence for September and German Producer Prices for August. The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index for September rose by 0.5 to a 2-year high of 12.9, stronger than expectations of 13.2. German Producer Price Index for August rose by 0.2% m/m and fell by 0.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of no change m/m and 1.0% y/y. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the October 17 meeting at 26% and a 100% chance of a 25bp rate cut at the December 12 meeting.
توصیه های معاملاتی
- سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1156, 1.1141, 1.1121, 1.1068, 1.1051, 1.1013, 1.0950
- سطوح مقاومت: 1.1180, 1.1191, 1.1275
The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. On Friday, the price tested the resistance level of 1.1180, where the sellers again took the initiative. Currently, the price is trading between two zones — the resistance zone above 1.1180 and the support zone below 1.1156. It is important for buyers to keep the price above 1.1156. If the price consolidates below 1.1156, we could see a sell-off to 1.1121.
سناریوی جایگزین:if the price breaks the support level of 1.1002 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
خوراک خبری برای: 2024.09.23
- German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:
- قبلی باز کن: 1.3275
- قبلی بستن: 1.3314
- % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.29 %
Although the Bank of England did not cut rates last week, the market is still confident that there will be at least one more rate cut this year, and the probability of two rate cuts is about two-thirds, as there are two meetings left before the end of the year (November 7 and December 19). Data in the coming week, consisting mainly of a preliminary estimate of the PMI for September and a revision to second-quarter GDP, is unlikely to change expectations much. The Bank of England’s speech is now somewhat less dovish, and a stronger-than-expected retail sales report for August may have helped lift sterling to a new two-year high.
توصیه های معاملاتی
- سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3306, 1.3273, 1.3241, 1.3188, 1.3153, 1.3115, 1.3086, 1.3072
- سطوح مقاومت: 1.3455
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The resistance zone at 1.3273–1.3306 failed to hold back the onslaught of buyers. The price has consolidated above, and now we should expect further price growth. It is better to use intraday time frames and moving averages for buying. If the price impulsively falls below 1.3272 again, a sharp sell-off to 1.3241 or 1.3188 may occur.
سناریوی جایگزین:if the price breaks the support level of 1.3145 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
خوراک خبری برای: 2024.09.23
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).
The USD/JPY currency pair
شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:
- قبلی باز کن: 142.61
- قبلی بستن: 143.85
- % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.86 %
The yen fell to a 2-week low against the dollar on Friday after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at the end of Friday’s meeting. In addition, the yen was impacted by dovish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, who said that the BoJ may not be in a hurry to raise interest rates. Swaps estimate the odds of a 10bp rate hike by the BoJ at 5% for the October 30–31 meeting and at 41% for a 10bp hike at the December 18–19 meeting.
توصیه های معاملاتی
- سطوح پشتیبانی: 143.24, 142.83, 142.19, 141.13, 140.43, 137.26
- سطوح مقاومت: 144.42, 147.17, 148.29, 150.88, 151.26
From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair has changed temporarily to an uptrend. Currently, the price is retesting the resistance zone at 144.42 and sellers are defending their positions. The divergence on the MACD indicates a possible correction in the coming days. Under such market conditions, we should look for selling from 144.42. The profit target is 143.24. If the buyers can raise the price above 144.42, we may see a sharp impulsive upward movement.
سناریوی جایگزین:if the price breaks and consolidates below the support at 140.43, the downtrend will likely resume.
خوراک خبری برای: 2024.09.23
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The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:
- قبلی باز کن: 2586
- قبلی بستن: 2622
- % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +1.39 %
Gold held near $2,620/oz on Monday, remaining at a new record high after breaking $2,600 last week, as expectations of further interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical tensions boosted bullion’s appeal. Currently, the fundamental picture is such that precious metals will continue to rise in price.
توصیه های معاملاتی
- سطوح پشتیبانی: 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522, 2513, 2503
- سطوح مقاومت: 2650, 2700
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The price is again striving for psychological marks, 2650 or 2700. Buyers are creating new support zones in steps to hold the trend. Buying at current prices is not recommended, as the price has deviated from the moving averages and may be correct. For selling, 2650 can be considered, provided sellers react again.
سناریوی جایگزین:if the price breaks down the support level of 2513, the downtrend will likely resume.
خوراک خبری برای: 2024.09.23
- US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).
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