بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2024.09.13

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.1007
• قبلی بستن: 1.1070
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.57 %

The ECB cut the deposit rate by 25 bps to 3.5% to ease monetary policy constraints, reflecting updated inflation expectations and improved policy transmission. In addition, interest rates on the main refinancing and marginal lending facility were cut to 3.65% and 3.90%, respectively, effective September 18. Inflation estimates remain in line with previous projections of 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1051, 1.1013, 1.0950, 1.0905, 1.0884
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.1085, 1.1140, 1.1191, 1.1275.

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend has changed to a bullish one. Yesterday, buyers took the initiative from the support level of 1.1013. At the same time, the bulls formed a support zone below 1.1051 on the price growth. Currently, the price has reached the resistance level of 1.1085, where some profit-taking is possible, which may correct the price a bit. For buy deals, it is best to consider the support level of 1.1051. Selling can be looked for on intraday time frames provided the initiative from 1.1085.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1002 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3041
• قبلی بستن: 1.3124
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.63 %

The British pound rose yesterday amid the weakness of the US dollar. The dollar fell on Thursday after an unexpected rise in weekly jobless claims in the US, indicating a weaker labor market, which is dovish for Fed policy. The Bank of England (BoE) cut rates in August but is cautiously approaching further rate cuts. Investors expect lower borrowing costs in November, possibly an additional cut in December.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3086, 1.3072, 1.3033, 1.3012, 1.2973, 1.2932, 1.2848, 1.2800
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3150, 1.3202, 1.3306

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair has changed to a bullish one. The situation is similar to the euro. Buyers took the initiative from the support level of 1.3033. On the growth, the price has formed 2 additional support levels — 1.3086 and 1.3072, where it is best to consider buy trades. Currently, the price has reached the resistance level of 1.3150, where the fixation of profits is possible. If sellers show interest here, intraday, we can look for sell trades with the moving averages target, but it will be a counter-trend trade.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.3033 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 142.28
• قبلی بستن: 141.81
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.33 %

Officials at the Bank of Japan announced yesterday that they plan to raise rates steadily. BoJ board spokesman Naoki Tamura said Thursday that the Central Bank should raise short-term rates to at least 1% by fiscal 2026 to achieve its 2% inflation target steadily. BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa also said this week that the Central Bank will continue raising interest rates if the economy and inflation align with its estimates.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 141.08, 140.22, 137.26
• سطوح مقاومت: 143.19, 144.42, 147.17, 148.29, 150.88, 151.26

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is a downtrend. The Japanese yen today again reached the support level of 141.08, but the reaction of buyers this time is much weaker. This level will likely be broken, and the price will rush to 140.22. For selling, it is best to look for intraday points near the moving averages. For buying, there are no optimal entry points right now.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance at 143.72, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 2512
• قبلی بستن: 2558
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +1.83 %

On Thursday, gold prices soared more than 1.5% to a record high amid expectations of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The US Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000. Meanwhile, the US producer prices rose slightly more than expected in August due to higher service costs, although the overall trend points to weaker inflation. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 71% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September 17–18 meeting and a 29% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. A looser monetary policy tends to favor gold as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-income-producing assets.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 2541, 2528, 2522, 2513, 2503
• سطوح مقاومت: 2575, 2600

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, the price consolidated above 2525 and triggered the huge liquidity that accumulated here in the last 3 weeks. As a result, there was a sharp bullish momentum as investors closed their selling with buying, thus accelerating the price. Currently, there are only psychological resistance levels of 2575 and 2600 above the price. It is very high to buy here, as the price has deviated from the midlines. It is best to wait for a pullback to the nearest support zone — 2541. Selling against such a trend is not recommended.

سناریوی جایگزین:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2513, the downtrend will likely resume.