Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2024.12.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.0493
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.0352
• Son güne göre % değişim: -1.36 %

The euro fell below $1.04, hitting its lowest level since November 2022, pressured by the overall dollar strength after the Fed unveiled a hawkish outlook for 2025. The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps as expected, but outlined only a 50 bps rate cut for 2025, half of what was estimated in September. Meanwhile, the ECB has already cut its key deposit rate four times this year and has maintained a cautious stance on further easing. At the same time, many analysts believe that the ECB may need to accelerate policy easing to support the fragile Eurozone economy.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.0332, 1.0482, 1.0460, 1.0425
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.0425, 1.0460, 1.0483, 1.0537, 1.0565, 1.0615

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the price of the euro fell sharply on the background of the growth of the US Dollar Index. Space for further decline remains. Buying is not recommended, as we need to see liquidity grabbing with buyers’ initiative for the market reversal. Neither of these is present now. Even MACD divergence is not observed. Sell trades are recommended from the moving average lines or from the resistance level of 1.0425.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0513 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.2703
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.2573
• Son güne göre % değişim: -1.04 %

The Bank of England (BoE) will hold its monetary policy meeting today. Disappointing data on the UK economy is likely to force policymakers to keep the interest rate at 4.75%. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that he expects four “gradual” rate cuts of 0.25% next year, which would move the benchmark rate from its current level of 4.75%. The UK Central Bank has already cut rates by 0.25% twice this year, while inflation is currently at 2.3% y/y. Thus, given that the ECB, SNB, and Bank of Canada are actively cutting their interest rates, the British pound may benefit from strengthening against these national currencies (EUR, CHF, CAD).

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.2666, 1.2617, 1.2589, 1.2467
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.2719, 1.2748, 1.2786, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982.

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro, but the pound has reached the support level, with the formation of the so-called SMT-divergence on the senior time frames. This is when in strongly corrective instruments, one updates the extremum and the other does not. This usually leads to corrections, sometimes even a reversal. However, technically, we don’t have the liquidity capture for such a scenario. So for now, the narrative is behind the bears. For selling, it is better to consider the moving averages or the resistance level of 1.2610.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.2728 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 153.51
• Öncekini Kapat: 154.77
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.82 %

On Thursday, the Japanese yen fell to 155 per dollar, hitting a one-month low, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its discount rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected. Before the decision, speculation grew that the BoJ might refrain from tightening its policy as policymakers opted to take more time to evaluate economic data. In addition, the yen faced pressure from a strengthening US dollar after the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday widely expected a 25 basis point rate cut, but signaled that it would cut rates less frequently in 2025.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 154.34, 153.25, 152.45, 151.94, 151.41, 151.00, 150.74
• Direnç seviyeleri: 155.25, 155.87

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price has reached the liquidity zone above 155.25, but the sellers’ reaction is weak. This increases the probability of a liquidity test above 155.87. Thus, as long as the price is above 155.00, intraday buying can be sought with a target up to 155.87. If the price falls sharply and fixes below 155.00, it will be the sellers’ initiative after the liquidity test. In this case, we should look for selling with the first target of 154.34.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the 153.14 support, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 2643
• Öncekini Kapat: 2592
• Son güne göre % değişim: -1.96 %

The gold price fell below $2,600 an ounce on Wednesday — the lowest level since November 18 — after the US Federal Reserve cut rates for the third consecutive time by 0.25%, as expected, but signaled limited easing in the future. The Fed’s so-called dot plot shows just two rate cuts in 2025 instead of four amid strong GDP growth and steady inflation. This prognosis has put pressure on gold demand, as the prospect of limited monetary easing reduces the attractiveness of bullion.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 2580, 2559, 2471
• Direnç seviyeleri: 2614, 2644, 2673, 2693, 2700, 2721, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to a downtrend. The price has consolidated below the priority change level. Currently, sellers are looking to bring the price down below 2580 for a liquidity test. The price rise at the end of yesterday’s session was probably caused by some profit taking. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now. For selling, we can consider the resistance level at 2614 or the moving average lines.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks above the 2614 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.