Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2024.12.18

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.0510
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.0491
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.18 %

The US Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting today. The Fed is expected to cut rates once again by 25 basis points at its last meeting of the year, marking the third consecutive rate cut. According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of this scenario is 96%. However, this scenario is already priced in, so investors will focus on any clues regarding the US Central Bank’s policy rate next year. This will be hinted at by both the speech of US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the updated summary of economic forecasts. Suppose Powell or the forecast summary is dovish, for example, due to policy uncertainty of the new president and Congress. In that case, it will be a short-term negative scenario for the US dollar but a positive scenario for currencies, especially where central banks have more hawkish policies.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.0482, 1.0460, 1.0425
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.0512, 1.0537, 1.0565, 1.0615, 1.0654, 1.0714

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The support level of 1.0482 keeps the price from falling. But sellers, on their part, formed another resistance zone above 1.0512. As a result, the price has created a flat between these levels. According to the trading rules in flat, you should always sell from the upper boundary and buy from the lower one. A breakout of 1.0512 will open the price to 1.0537, while a breakdown of 1.0482 may trigger a sell-off to 1.0425.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0609 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will be resumed with a high probability.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.2678
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.2709
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.24 %

The British pound strengthened slightly, trading above $1.27 after UK wage growth beat expectations, reinforcing the Bank of England’s (BoE) cautious approach to interest rate cuts. Regular wage growth, excluding bonuses, rose to 5.2% in the three months through October, led by growth in the private sector and beating forecasts of 5%. Key economic indicators, including inflation and retail sales, will be released later this week. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is also due to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, with the benchmark interest rate expected to remain unchanged.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.2666, 1.2617, 1.2589, 1.2467
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.2719, 1.2748, 1.2786, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The pound is trying to hold above the resistance at 1.2719, but sellers are actively reacting. The price is in the 50% Fibonacci zone, and a divergence is formed on the MACD indicator. Such market conditions indicate a high probability of a decline. Sell trades can be considered after the price fixation below the trend line. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2789 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 154.10
• Öncekini Kapat: 153.44
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.43 %

The Japanese yen is near its weakest level in the last three weeks. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points today, which could play into the Japanese currency’s hands amid the BOJ’s plans to raise rates next month. But on Thursday, the BOJ is expected to leave the rate at 0.25% as it sees “negligible costs” in delaying further tightening, preferring to wait for further evidence of wage growth before making further policy adjustments.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 153.25, 152.45, 151.94, 151.41, 151.00, 150.74
• Direnç seviyeleri: 154.71, 155.25

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price was corrected to the 153.25 support level, where traders could look for buy trades with a target of up to 154.71. There are no optimal entry points for selling now. However, a sharp sell-off may occur given the accumulative MACD divergence from 154.71.

Alternatif senaryo:

If the price breaks and consolidates below the 151.94 support, the downtrend is likely to resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 2652
• Öncekini Kapat: 2644
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.30 %

On Tuesday before the Federal Reserve meeting, gold fell to $2,640 per ounce. Investors are closely watching the central bank’s outlook for 2025. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, but uncertainty remains over the extent of future easing, especially with the prospect of higher inflation under a Trump administration. Nevertheless, bullion values have risen about 30% this year, the biggest annual gain since 2010. The US policy easing, strong demand for safe-haven assets, and continued buying by global central banks have contributed to this.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 2644, 2627, 2580, 2559, 2471
• Direnç seviyeleri: 2664, 2673, 2693, 2700, 2721, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish, but the intraday bias is now behind the sellers. The correction is quite deep, which increases the probability of a change in the medium-term trend. A flat accumulation in the form of a descending wedge is now forming. A breakout of the upper boundary of the wedge can be used for buying. But if the price is fixed below 2644, there is a high probability of a sell-off to 2627.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 2627, the downtrend is likely to resume.