Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2024.11.08

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.0728
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.0807
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.73 %

The Fed lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5–4.75% at its November 2024 meeting after a sharp 50 basis point cut in September, which was in line with expectations. During the regular press conference, Chairman Powell stated that the Fed is not following any pre-set course and will continue to make decisions based on each meeting. The Fed Chairman also left the door open for a pause in December as policymakers will need to see where the data leads, but that does not rule out the possibility of a rate cut. Powell noted that the election will not influence policy decisions soon.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.0781, 1.0732, 1.0667, 1.0610
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.0795, 1.0857

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the price corrected to the liquidity zone above 1.0795. Sellers tried to protect positions, but buyers built a demand zone below 1.0781. A retracement of the price above 1.0781 will open up buying opportunities to renew yesterday’s high. If the price fails to consolidate above 1.0781 and sellers push the price down intraday, a decline to 1.0732 is expected.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0933 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.2873
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.2986
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.88 %

The Bank of England cut the bank rate by 25bps to 4.75% in its November 2024 decision, as expected, marking the second rate cut in four years after the rate cut cycle began on August 8 out of 9 MPC members voted in favor of a rate cut, exceeding expectations of 7 votes, while Catherine Mann chose to hold the rate. The decision came amid signs of slowing price growth in the UK economy, with September’s inflation figure falling to a more than three-year low of 1.7%. The Bank expects inflation to end the year at 2.5% and 2.2% in 2026 due to the expansionary budget.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.2898, 1.2870, 1.2848, 1.2733, 1.2642
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.2982, 1.3023

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro, but the pound shows better growth dynamics. Currently, the price has reached the liquidity zone above 1.2982, where sellers showed a moderate reaction. Buyers, in turn, are trying to buy back the price right here. A lot will depend on whether the price can hold above 1.2982. If so, this will open up buying opportunities to renew yesterday’s high. If the sellers are able to defend the level, we should expect a sell-off below 1.2950.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3044 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 154.57
• Öncekini Kapat: 152.92
• Son güne göre % değişim: -1.08 %

The Japanese yen stabilized around 152.8 per dollar on Friday after Finance Minister Kato signaled that Japan will take “appropriate measures” to combat excessive currency fluctuations. Kato reiterated official warnings against speculation in the foreign exchange market and emphasized that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Donald Trump’s policies on Japan’s economy.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 152.65, 151.45
• Direnç seviyeleri: 153.90, 154.31, 155.20

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen corrected to the demand zone below 152.65. This is a strong level, but it is necessary to see buyers’ initiative here. At the moment, there is no reaction. In turn, sellers have built resistance steps — 152.84 and 153.28. For further growth of quotes, buyers need to show impulsive initiative to break through these zones. Lack of initiative may lead to a sharp strengthening of the yen to 151.45.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks down the support level of 151.64, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 2659
• Öncekini Kapat: 2707
• Son güne göre % değişim: +1.80 %

Gold held near the $2700 per ounce mark on Friday after the US Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point rate cut at the end of its meeting. On Thursday, the Fed lowered its target range for the federal funds rate to 4.50–4.75%, the second cut this year, as policymakers noted signs of softening in the labor market. In addition, ongoing hostilities in the Middle East continue to drive demand for precious metals.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 2690, 2667, 2634, 2604
• Direnç seviyeleri: 2700, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. The price tested liquidity above 2708, where sellers took the initiative. Currently, the price is testing the liquidity zone below 2690 without buyers’ reaction, which increases the probability of price decline to 2667. Selling can also be looked for from 2700 provided sellers react to the level. There is no optimal entry point for buying right now.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 2750, the uptrend will likely resume.