Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2024.10.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.1063
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.1044
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.17 %

The euro fell to a two-week low. “Dovish” comments from ECB Vice President Gindos and ECB Governing Council representative Kazaks on Wednesday pressured the euro as they voiced support for an ECB interest rate cut at the October 17 meeting. Swaps put the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the October 17 meeting at 96% and a 25 bps rate cut at the December 12 meeting at 100%.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.1025, 1.1013
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.1084, 1.1136, 1.1163, 1.1198, 1.1275

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the buyers failed to hold the sellers’ pressure. As a result, the price broke through the support level of 1.1069 and is now seeking to test the demand zone of 1.1013-1.1025. Considering the MACD divergence, we can look for buy trades if the buyers show initiative. There are no optimal entry points for selling now, as the price is trading near support levels.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.1163 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.3283
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.3267
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.15 %

The Bank of England’s third quarter systemic risk survey showed that respondents remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, noting a high confidence level. Geopolitical risk and cyber-attacks remain the most frequently cited risks by participants, with the proportion of those citing geopolitical risk rising further to the highest level ever recorded in the survey.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.3241, 1.3200, 1.3153, 1.3115
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.3293, 1.3327, 1.3377, 1.3389

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro. After testing the resistance at 1.3290, the British pound declined and reached the 1.3241 support level. The volumes show that the interest in the price decline is weakening, but the reaction of buyers is weak. Considering MACD divergence, intraday, we can look for buying from 1.3241, but only with confirmation. The breakdown of 1.3241 will lead to a decline in prices to 1.3200, where we can also look for buying if buyers take the initiative.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3389 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 148.53
• Öncekini Kapat: 146.45
• Son güne göre % değişim: +1.42 %

The yen fell sharply on Wednesday on dovish comments from Japanese officials. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba ruled out the possibility of a BoJ interest rate hike. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda echoed the sentiment and said the BoJ will not rush to tighten policy. Swaps estimate the odds of a 10 bps rate hike by the BoJ at 2% for the October 30-31 meeting and 19% for a 10 bps hike at the December 18-19 meeting. These are negative factors for the Japanese yen in the medium term.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 146.02, 143.84, 143.53, 143.02, 142.22, 140.46, 137.26
• Direnç seviyeleri: 146.87, 148.29

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to an upward trend. Yesterday, buyers took the initiative from the demand zone below 143.53. Currently, the price has reached the resistance level of 146.87, but the reaction of sellers here is weak, which increases the probability of further price growth. The support level of 146.02 can be considered for buying, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best considered from 148.29, subject to the sellers’ initiative.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breakdown the support level of 143.53, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 2663
• Öncekini Kapat: 2659
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.15 %

Precious metals traded mixed on Wednesday. Gold prices retreated slightly in Wednesday’s main session after the dollar index rose a 2-week-high. But precious metals remained supported amid escalating tensions in the Middle East after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to retaliate, saying Iran had “made a big mistake” and would “pay.”

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 2653, 2643, 2624, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
• Direnç seviyeleri: 2670, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, the price tested the support level 2642, where buyers were active enough to reverse the price. Further, the price canceled the last resistance level, which opened the way to 2670. Intraday, we can look for buy trades from the 2653 support level. 2670 can be considered for selling, provided sellers react to the level.

Alternatif senaryo:

 if the price breakdown the support level of 2569, the downtrend will likely resume.