This week, traders will be mainly interested in inflation data in the United States and the United Kingdom. Economists expect US inflation to rise slightly, which could increase risks to stock indices, as markets have already pushed back expectations for the Fed’s next rate cut to June after Friday’s unexpectedly strong labor market report.
On the other hand, inflationary pressures are expected to ease slightly in the UK. Last week, a sell-off in UK government bonds, known as gilts, put pressure on the new Labor government to stimulate the weakened economy. Lower inflation will be to the government’s advantage, as it allows the Bank of England to continue cutting rates to ease the pressure on the economy.
At the end of the week, traders should pay attention to a batch of data from China that will give investors a glimpse of how the country’s second-largest economy is behaving in the face of looming tariff hikes from the US. GDP data due Friday is expected to confirm that the economy has met its 5% growth target.
星期一, January 13
Monday is expected to be a fairly quiet day in terms of volatility. The only news worth highlighting is the Chinese trade balance data, which has a direct impact on the Asian indices CHA50 and HK50 and an indirect effect on the Australian (AUD) and New Zealand dollars (NZD). It’s a bank holiday in Japan.
當前主要事件:
- China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2).
星期二, January 14
On Tuesday, the US will release its producer inflation report. This is a leading indicator of consumer inflation — when manufacturers charge more for goods and services, the higher costs are usually passed on to consumers. The annualized figure is expected to rise from 3.0% to 3.2%, which is positive for the US dollar.
當前主要事件:
- Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
星期三, January 15
On Wednesday, the most important release for investors will be the Consumer Price Index in the United States and the United Kingdom. In the US, the figure is expected to rise from 2.7% to 2.9% y/y, while core inflation is expected to remain at 3.3% y/y. In the UK, economists forecast inflation to rise from 2.6% to 2.7% y/y, while core inflation is expected to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Strengthening the national currency usually accompanies deviation of CPI indicators towards inflation growth, and vice versa. Also, traders should not miss the US Crude Oil Inventories data, which significantly impacts oil prices. Let’s not forget that President Joe Biden’s administration has imposed new sanctions on Russian oil producers, tankers, intermediaries, and ports to hit all stages of the oil production and distribution chain.
當前主要事件:
- Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Indonesian BI Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
星期四, January 16
A lot of different data is expected on Thursday. In the Asian session, investors will focus on the Australian labor market data. Rising unemployment will pressure the RBA to start the process of rate cuts sooner, which will be positive for the Australian dollar. A big data package from the UK is expected in the European session, with GDP and industrial production data being the main reports. The UK economy is expected to recover slightly from 1.2% to 1.5% annually, which could be positive for the British currency. In the American session, traders will evaluate the US retail sales report. This is a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for most of the overall economic activity. A strong figure of 4.0% y/y and 0.5% m/m is expected, which will be positive for the US dollar.
當前主要事件:
- Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
星期五, January 17
On Friday, traders should also focus on the China economic data. GDP data due out on Friday is expected to confirm that the Chinese economy has met its 5% growth target, as previously announced by President Xi Jinping in late December. Strong reports on retail sales, industrial production, and the labor market are also expected. This could lead to a sharp rise in Asian indices.
當前主要事件:
- China GDP (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2).
本文僅反映個人觀點，不應被視為投資建議和/或要約和/或進行金融交易的持續要求和/或擔保和/或對未來事件的預測。