主要貨幣對的分析概要 2024.10.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.0793
• 前一收盤價: 1.0814
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.19 %

Belgian Central Bank governor Pierre Wunsch said yesterday that there is no urgent need to cut interest rates and that the ECB can even tolerate a small temporary excess of the inflation target. There is little risk of a sustained fall in inflation below the ECB’s 2% target, he said. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting at 100% and a 50bp rate cut at the same meeting at 45%.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.0808, 1.0780
• 阻力價位: 1.0826, 1.0835, 1.0868, 1.0894, 1.0951, 1.0979, 1.1013

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro is trading in a narrow corridor of 1.0808–1.0826. Intraday buyers prevail, so there is a high probability that the price will reach the resistance level of 1.0835. Buying can be looked for from 1.0808 or slightly lower. For selling, we need to evaluate the price reaction to the resistance level of 1.0826 or 1.0835. If sellers take the initiative at any of these levels, the euro could decline sharply.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.0871 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 1.2971
• 前一收盤價: 1.2969
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.02 %

According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC)-NielsenIQ Shop Price Index, store prices continued to decline in October. Compared to a year ago, prices were 0.8% cheaper overall, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and down from September’s 0.6% deflation. According to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, retail sales volumes fell at a modest pace in October, following a slight increase last month. Some companies noted that consumers are curbing their spending due to uncertainty surrounding the fall budget.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 1.2960, 1.2940, 1.2932, 1.2907
• 阻力價位: 1.2975, 1.2988, 1.3001, 1.3032, 1.3071, 1.3103, 1.3171, 1.3290

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The British pound, as well as the euro, is starting to consolidate in a narrow range of 1.2960–1.2975. Despite the downtrend, intraday, the initiative is now with the buyers. Therefore, the level of 1.2960 or lower can be considered for buying. For selling, the resistance levels of 1.2975 or 1.3001 should be considered. The sellers’ reaction to one of the levels is necessary for a sell entry.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3032 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 153.32
• 前一收盤價: 153.24
• 過去一天的變化%: -0.05 %

The Japanese yen traded around 153 per dollar on Tuesday, near three-month lows and remaining under pressure from uncertainty after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority in weekend elections. The political turmoil cast doubt on the Bank of Japan’s plans to normalize the economy after decades of monetary stimulus. The head of the Democratic Party for the People also said the Bank of Japan should avoid big policy changes as real wages are now stagnant.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 152.70, 151.64, 151.16, 152.00, 150.50, 149.63
• 阻力價位: 153.43, 154.93

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Buyers failed to keep the price above the level of 153.43, which increases the probability of a deeper correction. Currently, the price is trading in the range of 152.70–153.43 and is right in the middle of the corridor, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. For buying, we can consider the 152.70 level, but with confirmation. For selling, the level of 153.43 will be suitable but also provided the selling side takes the initiative.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks down the support level of 151.62, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

貨幣對的技術指標:

• 前一開盤價: 2734
• 前一收盤價: 2742
• 過去一天的變化%: +0.29 %

Gold soared above the $2750 per ounce mark on Tuesday, returning to record levels as markets refocused on a number of US economic data this week. The focus is on PCE inflation, the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP, and the NonFarm Payrolls labor market data. Uncertainty surrounding the US elections and policy easing by other major central banks also continues to support gold in the medium term.

交易建議

• 支撐價位: 2752, 2739, 2725, 2708, 2704, 2714, 2704, 2667, 2661, 2640
• 阻力價位: 2759

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has returned to growth and aims to renew the historical maximum. It is very important to evaluate the price reaction to the resistance level of 2759. If sellers do not show a reaction in this zone, gold can impulsively grow to new highs. Buy deals should be sought from the support levels 2750 or 2739, but only with confirmation. However, if sellers actively start to defend the level of 2759, considering the MACD divergence, gold may correct sharply.

選擇場景:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2640, the downtrend will likely resume.